Statistics

Montrealers leaving the island

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The majority of Montrealers who have left the city for the suburbs have been living on the outskirts of the city, according to a report released Thursday by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). In general, families living in areas bordering the island of Montreal, such as near the Honore-Mercier Bridge or in the Riviere-des-Prairies neighbourhood, are more likely to move to the surrounding suburbs. Those who live in the more central neighbourhoods tend to stay in the metropolis.

SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSES REMAIN POPULAR

The percentage of Montrealers buying single-family homes has increased over the past six years. From 2015 to 2019, between 22 per cent and 24 per cent of them were already leaving the island to buy a bungalow in the suburbs. This proportion rose to 28.8 per cent in 2020. Interestingly, in July 2020, this percentage jumped to 31 per cent, the quarter after the pandemic began. The number of single-family home transactions rose in most municipalities off the Island of Montreal in that period. On the North Shore, the largest increases were observed in Saint-Eustache, Saint-Jerome, Saint-Lin des Laurentides, L’Assomption and Rosemere, and others. As for the South Shore, the municipalities of Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, Longueuil (Vieux-Longueuil and St-Hubert sectors), Beloeil and Sainte-Julie welcomed several families who had previously lived in the metropolis. This wave of new households has probably created additional pressure on prices in a context of very limited supply.

Source : ctvnews.ca

Un jeune sur cinq a acheté une propriété en pleine pandémie au Québec

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Une enquête de Royal LePage dévoilée jeudi révèle que 18 % des milléniaux québécois et 28 % des milléniaux montréalais ont acquis un condo, une maison ou un immeuble depuis la mi-mars 2020.

Ce sont surtout les banlieues qui ont profité de l’engouement des 11 derniers mois, les jeunes cherchant une qualité de vie à long terme et n’hésitant plus à s’éloigner du centre, maintenant que le télétravail est devenu une possibilité.

«Les bas taux d’intérêt et la possibilité de travailler de la maison sont actuellement les principaux moteurs de motivation chez les jeunes acheteurs», a expliqué par communiqué Roxanne Jodoin, une courtière immobilière de Royal LePage Privilège, à Saint-Bruno-de-Montarville, en Montérégie.

La tendance à acheter devrait se maintenir chez les milléniaux, 17 % des répondants québécois et 19 % des répondants montréalais ayant indiqué leur souhait de devenir propriétaires d’ici la fin de l’année. Dans cinq ans, les mêmes intentions grimpent respectivement à 69 % et à 68 %.

Source : TVANOUVELLES.CA

Factors that drive Montreal housing market.

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Lower mortgage rates, help for first-time buyers and increased immigration levels are all pushing the housing market upwards.

The most optimistic forecast (or the most pessimistic, if you’re hoping for lower prices) comes from Capital Economics, which in a report last Friday said “momentum is building” in house price growth. If things stay at their current trend, house price growth will be running at an annual rate of 6 per cent by March of next year.

“The rise in the sales-to-new listing ratio suggests that house price inflation will surge,” senior Canada economist Stephen Brown wrote.

The sales-to-new-listing ratio measures how many houses are selling against how many houses are coming on to the market. The higher the ratio, the tighter the market, so the larger the price growth you can expect.

Though it varies from market to market, in general a ratio above 60 per cent suggests price hikes ahead.

sales-to-new listing ratio
CIBC WORLD MARKETS This chart from CIBC shows the sales-to-new-listings ratio by province. At around 70%, Quebec’s housing market is the tightest in the country, while Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland have ratios low enough to suggest stagnant or falling prices.

The best rates available for a five-year fixed-rate mortgage at the major banks fell to around 2.7 per cent today from 3.5 per cent at the start of this year, Brown said, citing data from RateSpy.com. The lower rates mean Canadian buyers can afford about 10 per cent more on the purchase price of a home than they could a year ago.

Source  – Read full article : www.huffingtonpost.ca.

 

REPRISE DES VENTES RÉSIDENTIELLES AU CANADA EN AVRIL

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Selon l’Association canadienne de l’immeuble (ACI), les ventes résidentielles au Canada ont grimpé de 4,2 % en avril 2019 par rapport au même mois de l’année précédente.

« Les ventes se stabilisent dans les cinq marchés urbains les plus actifs », affirme Gregory Klump, économiste en chef de l’ACI. « Le Grand Vancouver ne figure plus parmi les cinq premiers marchés urbains pour la première fois depuis la récession et il favorise pleinement les acheteurs. Les ventes à cet endroit continuent de tendre à ralentir, tandis que les acheteurs s’adaptent au cocktail de défis liés à l’abordabilité du logement, à l’accessibilité réduite au financement en raison de la simulation de crise pour les prêts hypothécaires et aux changements apportés à la politique du logement du gouvernement de la Colombie-Britannique », précise M. Klump.

Du côté des provinces, la Colombie-Britannique (-18,8 %), a connu une baisse sensible des ventes résidentielles comparativement à avril 2018, tandis que le Québec (+10,9 %), l’Ontario (+10,1 %) et enfin l’Alberta (+2,6 %) affichent une hausse.

Le prix moyen des maisons vendues au pays en avril 2019 était de 495 000 $, soit une hausse de 0,3 % comparativement au même mois l’année dernière. Si l’on exclut du calcul les marchés du Grand Vancouver et du Grand Toronto, les deux marchés les plus actifs et les plus chers au Canada, le prix moyen national baisse à juste un peu plus de 391 000 $.

En savoir plus sur cette nouvelle : Communiqué officiel de l’ACI

Quebec came to rule Canadian real estate in 2018

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For residential real estate, 2018 was the year of Quebec. While housing markets lost steam in other parts of the country, Quebec’s market remained poised as sales and prices grew.

That was one of the takeaways from data released this week by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), which presented a broad picture of resale  markets across Canada. The data also raised some interesting questions: For instance, in a year in which prices and sales declined in many regions, was it the average price that dropped or the price of the average house? Also, how has Quebec been able to avoid the declining trends?

CREA data shows that the nominal average housing price in greater Toronto in December 2018 was up 2.1 per cent from the year before. However, CREA’s Benchmark Home Price Index, which compares prices of similarly structured homes, revealed that the benchmark price in December 2018 was up 3 per cent. That suggests that more lower priced homes were sold in 2018.

The same index revealed that the prices in Greater Vancouver declined by 2.7 per cent but rose by 6 per cent in greater Montreal in December 2018.

The Montreal housing market is structurally different from the rest of the country. Low-rise multiplexes are the dominant housing type, and renters far outnumber owners in Montreal. The demand for townhouses and row housing is therefore greater in Montreal, which is reflected in a 9 per cent increase in their prices.

At the same time, compared with the prices in other large urban markets, housing prices in Montreal, Canada’s second-largest housing market, are significantly lower and have room for further appreciation. The average nominal house price in December 2018 was $394,000 in the Montreal Census Metropolitan Area compared with $750,000 in the greater Toronto area.

In Ontario, the total dollar volume of all residential sales in 2018 declined by 16 per cent to $108 billion — something that prompted the municipal authorities in Toronto, which levies a land transfer tax in addition to the one imposed by the province, to raise the alarm about an impending revenue shortfall expected to be $99 million.

And since the real estate industry works on commission, a 15 per cent decline in total dollar volume and an 11 per cent decline in transactions across Canada means a significant revenue loss for the real estate brokerage industry. Lower prices and fewer transactions also impact mortgage lenders who would have experienced a decline in the growth of their real estate portfolios.

See full text : https://business.financialpost.com