2023 ended with a slight decline in sales and home prices in the Greater Montreal area. But the market should recover soon, perhaps at the same time as nature, at the end of winter, experts predict.
According to real estate firm Royal LePage, we saw some “passivity” from buyers in 2023 as the year saw widely reported increases in mortgage rates. And while there may seem to be an increase in the number of “For Sale” signs on city streets, supply remains “historically” low. In the Montreal region, the number of homes on the market is currently 47% lower than the average over the past decade. However, not everything is so gloomy and hopeless. In its report, Royal LePage noted that demand for property viewings is already growing. This certainly means that potential buyers are expecting better deals this year and are already in the home-hunting phase.
This is exactly what realtors observe in their practice. “They have a lot more calls, a lot more visits,” confirms Dominic St-Pierre, vice-president and general manager of Royal LePage, Quebec region. He predicts a “hot” spring market. Which has nothing to do with temperature, he clarifies. Buyers are waiting for real reassurance about the Bank of Canada’s intentions and lower mortgage interest rates. “And even if the decline does not happen now,” adds Mr. St. Pierre, but at least in the near future. Once this is done, we should see a gradual return of life, especially among buyers who have put their projects on hold to wait for these more favorable conditions.
The market recovery will not be as strong as in 2021, which was exceptional, but “the market should be very active again,” says Dominique St-Pierre, “like before the pandemic, when the real estate market in Montreal was very active.”
Home owners can be sure that their property continues to increase in value. Statistics for 2023 confirm the rise in residential property values both in Montreal and throughout Quebec. Average property prices are expected to rise another 5% in 2024.
If we observe the market over a longer period, we note a 30.6% increase in property values over the past four years in the Montreal region – from the end of 2019 to the end of 2023.
Those who were planning to buy a house this fall are probably keeping an eye on rising mortgage interest rates. And not only them. Those, who have already purchased property and are due to renew their mortgage this year, are also watching with bated breath what disputes flare up in the press over the growing banking interests. It is now becoming clear that housing prices will not rise soon, but will most likely fall, primarily for apartments (condominiums or condos for short), which are less popular than houses.
