Factors that drive Montreal housing market.

Lower mortgage rates, help for first-time buyers and increased immigration levels are all pushing the housing market upwards.

The most optimistic forecast (or the most pessimistic, if you’re hoping for lower prices) comes from Capital Economics, which in a report last Friday said “momentum is building” in house price growth. If things stay at their current trend, house price growth will be running at an annual rate of 6 per cent by March of next year.

“The rise in the sales-to-new listing ratio suggests that house price inflation will surge,” senior Canada economist Stephen Brown wrote.

The sales-to-new-listing ratio measures how many houses are selling against how many houses are coming on to the market. The higher the ratio, the tighter the market, so the larger the price growth you can expect.

Though it varies from market to market, in general a ratio above 60 per cent suggests price hikes ahead.

sales-to-new listing ratio
CIBC WORLD MARKETS This chart from CIBC shows the sales-to-new-listings ratio by province. At around 70%, Quebec’s housing market is the tightest in the country, while Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland have ratios low enough to suggest stagnant or falling prices.

The best rates available for a five-year fixed-rate mortgage at the major banks fell to around 2.7 per cent today from 3.5 per cent at the start of this year, Brown said, citing data from RateSpy.com. The lower rates mean Canadian buyers can afford about 10 per cent more on the purchase price of a home than they could a year ago.

Source  – Read full article : www.huffingtonpost.ca.

 

REPRISE DES VENTES RÉSIDENTIELLES AU CANADA EN AVRIL

Selon l’Association canadienne de l’immeuble (ACI), les ventes résidentielles au Canada ont grimpé de 4,2 % en avril 2019 par rapport au même mois de l’année précédente.

« Les ventes se stabilisent dans les cinq marchés urbains les plus actifs », affirme Gregory Klump, économiste en chef de l’ACI. « Le Grand Vancouver ne figure plus parmi les cinq premiers marchés urbains pour la première fois depuis la récession et il favorise pleinement les acheteurs. Les ventes à cet endroit continuent de tendre à ralentir, tandis que les acheteurs s’adaptent au cocktail de défis liés à l’abordabilité du logement, à l’accessibilité réduite au financement en raison de la simulation de crise pour les prêts hypothécaires et aux changements apportés à la politique du logement du gouvernement de la Colombie-Britannique », précise M. Klump.

Du côté des provinces, la Colombie-Britannique (-18,8 %), a connu une baisse sensible des ventes résidentielles comparativement à avril 2018, tandis que le Québec (+10,9 %), l’Ontario (+10,1 %) et enfin l’Alberta (+2,6 %) affichent une hausse.

Le prix moyen des maisons vendues au pays en avril 2019 était de 495 000 $, soit une hausse de 0,3 % comparativement au même mois l’année dernière. Si l’on exclut du calcul les marchés du Grand Vancouver et du Grand Toronto, les deux marchés les plus actifs et les plus chers au Canada, le prix moyen national baisse à juste un peu plus de 391 000 $.

En savoir plus sur cette nouvelle : Communiqué officiel de l’ACI

Mortgage help for some first-time homebuyers

Happy Canada July Flag Canadian Symbol Canada Day

On the eve of a federal election this fall, the Liberal government is looking to help more Canadians buy their first homes by picking up a portion of their mortgage costs and increasing the amount they can borrow from their retirement savings for a down payment.

Helping people enter the housing market has been a growing preoccupation for the Liberals ever since they were elected in 2015, with soaring real estate prices in some of Canada’s largest cities putting home ownership beyond the reach of many.

An estimated 1.6 million Canadian households are considered in “core housing need,” meaning people who are living in places that are either too expensive or don’t suit their needs.

The means-tested incentive the Liberals unveiled Tuesday would only be available to households with incomes under $120,000 – roughly $50,000 more than the median household income as calculated by Statistics Canada – and on mortgages no more than four times the household’s total income.
Eligible buyers would see the government pick up part of the costs of their mortgages to lower their monthly payments, with the amount of help determined by their incomes and whether they’re buying an existing or newly built home.

Image by <a href="https://pixabay.com/users/PhotoMIX-Company-1546875/?utm_source=link-attribution&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=image&amp;utm_content=1407562">Photo Mix</a> from <a href="https://pixabay.com/?utm_source=link-attribution&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=image&amp;utm_content=1407562">Pixabay</a>

The government also plans to raise the maximum amount a first-time buyer can withdraw from an RRSP: $35,000, up from $25,000. And while the program has long been restricted to new would-be homeowners, those who are recovering from the breakup of a marriage or common-law relationship would also be allowed to take part.

The measure, expected to cost $1.25 billion over three years beginning this fiscal year, would target Canadians “that face legitimate challenges entering housing markets” after qualifying for a mortgage, the budget document says. An additional $100 million would flow to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation to help organizations that already provide the so-called “shared equity mortgages.”

The program, some details of which are yet to be finalized, is part of a tranche of spending that includes establishing a national expert panel on housing supply and affordability, better data collection, and $300 million for a contest to encourage cities to come up with new ways of expanding housing stock.

The new measures could increase the annual number of new homebuyers nationally to 140,000 from 100,000 by lowering monthly payments without creating higher household debt loads, said Finance Minister Bill Morneau, who was confident the measures won’t cause a spike in housing prices.

“We’re recognizing that it is challenging for people in the housing market; it’s a real issue, but what we’ve done is we’ve carefully looked at what’s the best way to deal with that issue,” Morneau told a news conference.

“It’s not going to make an impact on the overall market from a pricing standpoint, meaning people are actually going to be better off, more optimism in terms of housing, and it’s the reason we’re very excited about this measure.”

Source : https://bc.ctvnews.ca/

Marché immobilier. 2E TRIMESTRE DE 2018.

Le marché a conservé son dynamisme au deuxième trimestre de 2018 :

• Ainsi, 14 771 propriétés résidentielles ont changé de mains dans l’ensemble de la RMR, soit 4 % de plus que le nombre observé à la même période un an auparavant.
• Cela fait désormais 16 trimestres que les ventes résidentielles ne cessent de croître dans la région.
• La copropriété demeure le segment le plus dynamique avec une hausse de 13 % (5 120), tandis que les ventes de plex (1 332) ont enregistré une timide augmentation de 1 %.
• En revanche, les ventes d’unifamiliales (8 301) ont reculé (-1 %) pour la première fois depuis le deuxième trimestre de 2014.
• Le prix médian a continué de croître pour l’unifamiliale (322 509 $) et la copropriété (253 000 $), avec une hausse de 3 %. Le prix médian des plex de deux à cinq logements (510 000 $) a
également poursuivi sa progression (+7 %).
• À l’instar du trimestre précédent, les secteurs de l’île de Montréal et de Vaudreuil-Soulanges se sont démarqués en affichant les plus fortes hausses du prix médian des unifamiliales (+7 % et +12 % respectivement).
• Ces deux secteurs se sont également distingués par les plus fortes progressions du prix médian des copropriétés, c’est-à-dire de 5 % pour l’île de Montréal et de 6 % pour Vaudreuil-Soulanges.
• En moyenne, un peu plus de 24 000 propriétés résidentielles étaient affichées dans l’ensemble de la RMR sur le système Centris d’avril à juin. Il s’agit d’une diminution de 17 % et du onzième recul trimestriel consécutif à ce chapitre.
• La baisse des inscriptions en vigueur a été particulièrement prononcée pour les unifamiliales (-14 %) et les copropriétés (-22 %). Les plex de deux à cinq logements ont également vu leur offre se tarir, mais dans une moindre mesure, avec une diminution des inscriptions de 6 %. C’est l’île de Montréal qui a enregistré la plus forte contraction de l’offre, soit une diminution de 20 % du nombre de propriétés résidentielles à vendre.
• Les délais de vente moyens ont continué de se raccourcir : en moyenne, il fallait respectivement 73 jours (-11), 95 jours (-14) et 71 jours (-10) pour vendre une unifamiliale, une copropriété et un plex dans l’ensemble de la RMR.

Source : https://www.fciq.ca

How real estate feeds the Canadian economy. Macleans.


Real estate is more important to the Canadian economy than you think. Here’s why. Source : Macleans.ca

Canadians aren’t ready to give up on real estate related economic growth. Statistics Canada released final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers for 2017. The Canadian economy squeezed out a gain for the year. Nearly a fifth of those gains came from real estate related industries. Despite talk of a slowing real estate market, over a fifth of GDP still comes from real estate and related industries.

Real estate played a huge roll in driving GDP growth over the past year. December’s numbers show a $55.96 billion increase from the year before. Breaking that number down, $10.73 billion of the increase was related to the FIRE (Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate) segment. This means FIRE represented 19.18% of growth. StatsCan analysts noted the mortgage stress tests, but the ratio is actually lower than it has been recently. So we’re not seeing a large spike due to people squeezing in before stress testing became mandatory.

Source : https://betterdwelling.com/