Is housing prices expected to rise in the near future?

happy couple with home keys

Due to concerns about the weak economy, the Canadian Central Bank decided to unexpectedly lower its key interest rate by 50 basis points on October 23, from 4.25% to 3.75%. This reduction in the interest rate may be a positive development for potential homebuyers, as it could lead to increased demand for real estate. However, the influx of new buyers on the market could also have a negative impact, as it may drive up prices.

While the interest rate cut may be good news for sellers as it could increase demand and lead to more auctions. However, the effects of the rate change may not be immediate and could take some time to fully materialize.

Even without reducing the interest rate, we have returned to a situation where there are multiple offers for the same property. Of course, there are still no offers for well over 100 thousand dollars above the listed price, but it is not unusual to see an offer 25, 30, or even 50 thousand dollars higher if 5 – 6 buyers have expressed interest in the property. This is especially true in the house market. The condominium market, however, is less in demand.

Today, a property worth 500 thousand dollars is the most desired. As a rule, first-time buyers come to me with letters from their bank stating that their future home’s value should not exceed this amount. Houses within this price range simply “fly off the shelf”, selling in the first week. That said, million-dollar homes that meet all requirements and are well-maintained are still in high demand. I have attended several auctions for these properties.

The Association of Real Estate Brokers of Quebec reports that real estate sales in the Montreal region jumped by 43.8% (!) in October compared to the same month last year.

I would advise families planning to buy a house not to wait until March or April for the search to begin. You can start searching for a house right now and make a purchase with a notary in June. However, the choice of a house, inspection, and verification of documents — all this can be done now.

Always ready to help you, Olga Ouspenski, real estate broker with 20 years of experience. Please contact me : +1-514-999-9260, , or here  www.OlgaOuspenski.net/.

Towards spring awakening

Spring money growth2023 ended with a slight decline in sales and home prices in the Greater Montreal area. But the market should recover soon, perhaps at the same time as nature, at the end of winter, experts predict.

According to real estate firm Royal LePage, we saw some “passivity” from buyers in 2023 as the year saw widely reported increases in mortgage rates. And while there may seem to be an increase in the number of “For Sale” signs on city streets, supply remains “historically” low. In the Montreal region, the number of homes on the market is currently 47% lower than the average over the past decade. However, not everything is so gloomy and hopeless. In its report, Royal LePage noted that demand for property viewings is already growing. This certainly means that potential buyers are expecting better deals this year and are already in the home-hunting phase.

New house keys transferThis is exactly what realtors observe in their practice. “They have a lot more calls, a lot more visits,” confirms Dominic St-Pierre, vice-president and general manager of Royal LePage, Quebec region. He predicts a “hot” spring market. Which has nothing to do with temperature, he clarifies. Buyers are waiting for real reassurance about the Bank of Canada’s intentions and lower mortgage interest rates. “And even if the decline does not happen now,” adds Mr. St. Pierre, but at least in the near future. Once this is done, we should see a gradual return of life, especially among buyers who have put their projects on hold to wait for these more favorable conditions.

The market recovery will not be as strong as in 2021, which was exceptional, but “the market should be very active again,” says Dominique St-Pierre, “like before the pandemic, when the real estate market in Montreal was very active.”

Home owners can be sure that their property continues to increase in value. Statistics for 2023 confirm the rise in residential property values both in Montreal and throughout Quebec. Average property prices are expected to rise another 5% in 2024.

If we observe the market over a longer period, we note a 30.6% increase in property values over the past four years in the Montreal region – from the end of 2019 to the end of 2023.

Factors that drive Montreal housing market.

Lower mortgage rates, help for first-time buyers and increased immigration levels are all pushing the housing market upwards.

The most optimistic forecast (or the most pessimistic, if you’re hoping for lower prices) comes from Capital Economics, which in a report last Friday said “momentum is building” in house price growth. If things stay at their current trend, house price growth will be running at an annual rate of 6 per cent by March of next year.

“The rise in the sales-to-new listing ratio suggests that house price inflation will surge,” senior Canada economist Stephen Brown wrote.

The sales-to-new-listing ratio measures how many houses are selling against how many houses are coming on to the market. The higher the ratio, the tighter the market, so the larger the price growth you can expect.

Though it varies from market to market, in general a ratio above 60 per cent suggests price hikes ahead.

sales-to-new listing ratio
CIBC WORLD MARKETS This chart from CIBC shows the sales-to-new-listings ratio by province. At around 70%, Quebec’s housing market is the tightest in the country, while Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland have ratios low enough to suggest stagnant or falling prices.

The best rates available for a five-year fixed-rate mortgage at the major banks fell to around 2.7 per cent today from 3.5 per cent at the start of this year, Brown said, citing data from RateSpy.com. The lower rates mean Canadian buyers can afford about 10 per cent more on the purchase price of a home than they could a year ago.

Source  – Read full article : www.huffingtonpost.ca.

 

A quarter of Canadians are looking to buy a home

“A quarter of Canadians say they are looking to buy a home, with many noting their local housing market is becoming a buyer’s market. But most prospective buyers say they plan to wait until next year to purchase, reflecting broad uncertainty about the future of the country’s housing market.

Atlantic Canadians were most likely to be planning to purchase a home, according to a new poll of home buyers for Royal Bank of Canada. More than 60 per cent of potential buyers in the region, the highest in the country, said they intended to purchase a home this year rather than wait.

BNN Video Jun. 08 2015, 10:29 AM EDT
Video: Why a housing collapse isn’t anywhere near

Falling oil prices have put a damper on housing markets in Alberta, where 35 per cent of residents expect prices to drop further. More than 40 per cent of Albertans say the province is now in a buyer’s market, compared with just 22 per cent when the bank surveyed Albertans last year.” (The Globe and Mail, Published

Read full article : http://www.theglobeandmail.com

SCHL – Hausse des primes d’assurance

CMHCSCHLÀ compter de 1-er juin 2015 la Société canadienne d’hypothèques et de logement  (SCHL) augmente les primes d’assurance prêt hypothécaire pour les acheteurs dont la mise de fonds est inférieure à 10%. Seulement deux segments de prêts hypothécaires sont visés par cette augmentation, en l’occurrence lorsque le ratio prêt-valeur est de moins de 95% ou encore lorsque celui-ci représente de 90,01% à 95% tout en ayant une mise de fonds non traditionnelle. On entend par mise de fonds non traditionnelle des fonds empruntés ou une remise accordée par le prêteur par exemple.

Les primes assumées par ces acheteurs qui vont acquérir une maison à compter du 1er juin seront plus élevées d’environ 15%, a annoncé l’institution fédérale. Pour un propriétaire dont l’hypothèque s’élève à 250 000$ sur une période d’amortissement de 25 ans, la hausse sera de 1125$, portant le total à 9000$ ou une augmentation des mensualités hypothécaires de 5,20$ par mois. «Il ne devrait donc pas y avoir d’effet tangible sur les marchés de l’habitation», affirme la SCHL.

Les primes exigibles pour les acheteurs versant une mise de fonds de 10% ou plus demeurent inchangées.

Rapport prêt-valeur Primes ordinaires
(Actuelles)
Primes ordinaires
(À compter du 1er juin 2015)
65 % ou moins 0,60 % 0,60 %
75 % ou moins 0,75 % 0,75 %
80 % ou moins 1,25 % 1,25 %
85 % ou moins 1,80 % 1,80 %
90 % ou moins 2,40 % 2,40 %
95 % ou moins 3,15 % 3,60 %
Mise de fonds non traditionnelle
De 90,01 à 95 % 3,35 % 3,85 %

Augmentation des mensualités hypothécaires selon le montant de prêt:

Rapport prêt-valeur de 95 %
Montant du prêt 150 000 $ 250 000 $ 350 000 $ 450 000 $
Prime actuelle 4 725 $ 7 875 $ 11 025 $ 14 175 $
Nouvelle prime 5 400 $ 9 000 $ 12 600 $ 16 200 $
Prime additionnelle 675 $ 1 125 $ 1 575 $ 2 025 $
Augmentation des mensualités
hypothécaires
3,12 $ 5,20 $ 7,29 $ 9,36 $
Selon un terme de 5 ans, un taux de 2,79 % et une période d’amortissement de 25 ans