Is Canada immune from a housing bubble?

Homes in a Bubble.
There’s a line from Tolstoy’s “Anna Karenina” that says, “Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.” I’m inclined to say that that’s also broadly true of bubbles. Apart from some superficial differences that may convince participants that it’s somehow different this time, bubbles seem to follow some familiar patterns.

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What Does “Market Value” Mean?

balance_money_houseWhen a real estate agent talks to you about listing your home, you’ll hear a great deal of talk about “market value,” but just what’s meant by that term? In this article, we’re only going to be considering your single family home, because different standards and calculation methods apply to commercial and investment property, but let’s examine what market value is, and how it’s determined.

Market Value of Single Family Homes

Put simply, a home’s market value is the price at which it should sell once it’s put on the market for a reasonable amount of time, which generally means thirty to ninety days.

Within that definition are two main variables that affect a home’s market value: the house itself, and the time period during which it’s to be sold. First, let’s look at the house itself. Every home sits in some kind of neighborhood, whether it’s in the middle of downtown or way out in the country, and the location of a house will have a large influence on its market value.

The neighborhood is important, but condition of the house is also an important factor when it comes to determining its market value. The nicest home in the neighborhood normally will have the highest market value, while a house that needs a great deal of renovation will be worth less, even if it’s in the best neighborhood in town.

The condition and location of a home will affect the market value in proportion to how quickly the owner wants to sell it. In order to attract a greater number of buyers and to sell the home more quickly, the price will need to be lower, which brings us to the second factor in the market value equation: time.

Regardless of where it may be located, if a house doesn’t sell with the one to three month marketing period, the chances are that it was overpriced. Even brand-new homes, in brand-new subdivisions, in the most desirable part of town won’t sell within thirty to sixty days if the price is too high. (On the flip side, if a home sells in a week or less, the chances are that the marketing price was too low. But most of the time, errors in calculating market value are made on the too-high side.)

Determining market value is both an art and a science, and a skilled real estate agent, armed with information about the area, other listings, and previous sales, can generally come quite close to a price that will get the home sold within one to three months. After all, it’s their job to help get you the best sales price possible – in a reasonable amount of time.

Source : http://www.canadarealestatedirectory.com/articles

 

MLS® Barometer – Residential Market

Fewer Buyers and More Sellers

There were 7,175 residential sales transactions concluded through a real estate broker in the Montréal Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) in the third quarter of 2012. This represents a 7 per cent decrease compared to the 7,755 sales concluded in the third quarter of 2011 and the first decrease in sales after four quarterly increases.

Tighter Mortgage Rules a Likely Culprit

Monthly data shows that sales began to cool in the Montréal area in the months of August (-7 per cent) and September (-17 per cent), while sales in July were higher than those of the previous year (+2 per cent). The drop in sales in August and September corresponds with the implementation of the federal government’s new, more restrictive rules governing mortgage loan insurance1. First-time buyers were most likely to be affected by these measures which came into effect on July 9.

Widespread Decrease in Sales

Sales decreased for all three property categories in the Montréal area in the third quarter of 2012 compared to the third quarter of 2011. Sales of single-family homes (4,167 transactions) registered the smallest decrease at 6 per cent, while condominium sales fell by 9 per cent (2,290 transactions). The 711 plex transactions concluded in the third quarter of 2012 represent a 13 per cent decrease in sales and the worst third quarter result since 2000.

Prices Continue to Increase

Despite the widespread drop in sales, property prices continued to climb in the Montréal CMA, but at a slower pace for condominiums which posted the most modest price increase since the fourth quarter of 2008. The median price of condominiums grew by 2 per cent to reach $230,000, that of single-family homes grew by 3 per cent to reach $277,750 and that of plexes increased by 5 per cent to reach $425,000.

Source : http://www.fciq.ca/pdf/Barometre_MLS/bar_2012_q3_mtl_a.pdf

TIGHTER MORTGAGE RULES (TD Economics)

TIGHTER MORTGAGE RULES TO COOL DEBT GROWTH, BUT HIGHER RATES ULTIMATELY REQUIRED

• The Department of Finance recently implemented tighter mortgage insurance rules to help take some of steam out of the Canadian housing market and to curb households from taking on too much debt during a continued low interest rate environment.
• Analysis shows that past regulatory tightening led to a significant permanent drop in housing demand. However, while home prices took an immediate hit following the rule changes, they bounced back within two to three quarters and continued to grow faster than underlying economic fundamentals. The dampening effect on household credit growth was more notable and sustained.
• The changes implemented on July 9th may have more of a bite as they will hit a larger segment of the housing market and lead to a larger deterioration in affordability than past rule changes, particularly for first time homebuyers. Overall we expect the new rules to shave 5 percentage points off sales and 3 percentage points off prices over the rest of 2012 and early 2013 and reduce about 1 percentage point off credit growth.


• However, new guidelines will only go part of the way in unwinding the imbalances developed in the Canadian housing market. As long as interest rates remain at their current low levels, households still have a strong incentive to borrow and the overvaluation in the housing market will persist. Ultimately, interest rate increases by the Bank of Canada are needed to ensure sustainable growth in the Canadian housing market.

 

 

Source : http://www.td.com/document/PDF/economics/special/dp0912_mortgage_rules.pdf

New mortgage rules hit first-time buyers. Maximum amortization period is cut from 30 years to 25.

dumaBuying a first home or taking out a loan against an existing residence will be more difficult for Canadians under new rules announced Thursday, but Finance Minister Jim Flaherty says it’s for their own good.
For the fourth time in as many years, the finance minister moved to tighten the mortgage and lending landscape – changes that mean up to 5% of Canadians who might be considering buying a new home will likely no longer qualify.
This time Flaherty’s cutting the maximum amortization period for government insured homes to 25 years from the current 30 years, and limiting how much homeowners can borrow on the value of their homes to 80% from 85%.
Those are not the only changes the government is making.

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